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A Team for Coupled Human and Environmental MacroSystems (TeamCHEMS) in a Changing Globe

Landscape Ecology and Environmental Change | Environmental Science & Policy Program

Project Overview

Challenges & Objectives

The iconic statement of BBC News to Americans via NPR stations is that “we live in a rapidly changing, increasingly connected world”. This statement reflects the needs of science, technology, and education toward global scale (i.e., global change science and telecoupling), including those in broadly-defined environmental science. With many pressing issues facing today’s global community (e.g., water scarcity, food security, energy shortage, global warming, human health), sound solutions and approaches need to: (i) couple natural and human sciences, and (ii) consider the co-evolutions of natural and human systems at broader spatial scales. These needs have resulted in two major research programs within the National Science Foundation (NSF): coupled natural and human systems (CNH) and Macrosystems Biology. Other programs within/outside of the NSF include the Sustainable Energy Program or SEP (NSF), Climatic Change, the LULCC Program (NASA), the Future Earth (IUCN), etc. All of these programs have the same requirements for a coupled human-natural sciences approach. Most recently, the NSF is considering a new, cross-division program focusing on food-energy-water at national and international levels. The goal of this proposal is to form a team across the MSU campus to be well positioned to compete for these opportunities. This team will target the Coupled Human and Environmental MacroSystems (i.e., TeamCHEMS) of: i) three contrasting countries (USA, China, and Brazil), and ii) three clustering macrosystems (European Union, Africa Union, and former Soviet Union), with 6 countries in each cluster, and the linkages (i.e. telecoupling among these macro-systems).

To achieve this long-term goal, the TeamCHEMS will organize regular workshops and address the following objectives):

  • a comprehensive database of the natural systems (NS) and human systems (HS) for the 6 macrosystems (i.e. building up the necessary infrastructure and preliminary data for proposals),
    • one or two manuscripts highlighting the research needs and directions, and external proposals for NSF’s Macrosystems Biology, CNH, or the new food-energy-water program, and/or NASA (the Inter-Disciplinary Science or IDS). The 17 members included have had previous collaborations but not all of them working on a single objective and they offer complementary and appropriate expertise from 4 colleges and 3 research centers. New members may be added as we proceed in carrying out the above objectives.


The Scientific Foundations

Empirical evidence strongly indicates that neither biophysical nor socioeconomic systems operate independently; rather, they interact with one another, often in a nonlinear fashion, varying across spatial, temporal, and organizational scales and yield emergent behaviors for each system. Under this school of thinking, one will not only examine complex interactions among the elements of the HS or NS but, more importantly, will also study the direct or indirect causal relationships between the elements of the HS and NS matrices (Fig. 1) due to the changes of driving forces from socioeconomic or climatic perspectives (e.g., population increase, institutional and policy changes, economic growth, global climate, education, etc.) An increasing number of studies have shown that the two drivers regulated ecosystems simultaneously, with human disturbances producing much stronger impacts than climate change. Over human history, we now know that ecosystem services have been mostly affected by human actions such as wars, formations of social structure, urban expansion, and agricultural expansion. However, escalating global climate change and disturbances in recent decades added much more fuel to the complexity of the CNH processes and functions. A particular technical challenge is to understand the impact of ecosystem/societal functions from coupled socioeconomic and biophysical changes where the HS is often delineated by administrative boundaries while NS is not. These differences will likely yield different land use among the units and consequently alter the functions and dynamics of ecosystems, which, in turn, will have direct feedback on socioeconomic development.

Picture depicting the direct causal relationship and feedback.

Figure 1. Our conceptual framework to understand the drivers, mechanisms, and consequences of socioeconomic and physical changes on the functional changes of the human system (HS) and natural systems (NS) on the six macrosystems that have headed on different directions. LUC and LCC will be considered as the intermediate variables facilitating the causal relationships as well as the foundation for the trajectories.

In light of understanding the complex CHEMS, we hypothesize that while biophysical change (e.g., climate) produced uneven pressures among ecosystems and societies in time and space, the socioeconomic changes and their disparities among the administrative units further escalated the complex causal relationships among the elements of the NS and HS. We further hypothesize that the human influences on CHEMS exceeded that of the biophysical changes but the significance varies in time, location, and ecological setting (e.g., biome). To test these hypotheses, we must perform an uncertainty analysis, assess the vulnerabilities, and forecast the changes in CHEMS functions at various temporal, spatial, and organizational scales in order to develop sound adaptation strategies for alternative climates, land uses, and socioeconomic conditions to ensure long-term sustainability.

The functions of the HS and NS have been traditionally measured using different metrics. Here, we propose to use the same algorithms as the United Nations Development Program to calculate the Human Development Index (HDI). Among the 40+ different indices, the life expectancy index (LEI), income index (II), and education index (EI) have been used since 1990 and will be utilized in this study. Other qualitative and quantitative (e.g., human poverty index) measures will also be examined. For NS functions, net primary production (NPP), evapotranspiration (ET), and ecosystem respiration (Re, carbon loss) will be modeled in this study. More importantly, we will place major focus on the relationships between these functions, such as NPP/GDP, GDP/ET, RE/II, etc. None of these relational variables between the HS and NS have been explored in the literature, suggesting that our innovative endeavors may produce stimulating results for the CNH community. We will use LCLUC as an intermediate process to connect these elements because it provides a logical link to integrate humans and nature.



Working Group Activities

The proposal work plan matches well with the research and education priorities of MSU, including perspectives in global change, water and food, and human dimensions of global environmental change. TeamCHEMS is also constructed to support five new (Chen, Basso, Dahlin, Lafortezza, Moran) and four junior (John, Luo, Dahlin, Moore) faculty members. The sections of focal macrosystems were based on our long-term research in China (Chen, Qi, Liu, Fan), Brazil (Moran), East Africa (Moore), Central Asia (Qi, John, Chen), Europe (Lafortezza, Basso). Rich datasets, strong collaborations, and knowledge are in place to warrant our success. For example, our proposed plans are backed by several ongoing projects of TeamCHEMS members, including:

  1. Fan, Chen. Urbanization and Sustainability Under Global Change and Transitional Economies: Synthesis from Southeast, East and North Asia. LULCC-NASA, 2015-18.
  2. Chen, Brown. Ecosystems and Societies on Double-Headed Mongolian Plateau. LULCC-NASA, 2014-17.
  3. Chen, Jones, John, Zhang, Kinnucan. Ecosystems and Societies of Outer and Inner Mongolia: Divergent Trajectories and Coevolution. CNH-NSF, 2013-17.
  4. Qi. MAIRS Project Scientist. LULCC-NASA, 2013-18.
  5. Snapp, Messina, Richardson, Basso, Schmitt, Olabisi. Perennial grain crops for African smallholder farming systems. Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, 2013-2015.
  6. Fan, Messina, Moore. China's Urbanization and its Sustainability under Future Climate Change, LULCC-NASA, 2009-13.
  7. Hofferth, Moran. RCN: Social Observatories Coordinating Network (SOCN). NRCN-SF, 2012-16.
  8. Moran. The social and environmental consequences of the construction of the Belo Monte Hydroelectric dam in Brazil, FAPESP, 2014-18.
  9. Moran, Amazonian Deforestation and the Structure of Households. National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, NIH, 1997-2014.
  10. Messina, Moore. Global Center for Food Systems Innovation: Land use change and climate change impacts in Malawi. USAID AID-OAA-A-13-00006, 2012-17.
  11. Lafortezza. Green Infrastructure and Urban Biodiversity for Sustainable Urban Development and the Green Economy, European FP7, 2014-18.
  12. Liu, Vina, Winkler. Complex effects of climate change on nature reserve networks at macroscales, Macrosystems-NSF, 2014-18.

In addition to USA, China (Qi & Fan lead), and Brazil (Moran leads) where we have substantial data and knowledge, we have identified six countries for each clustering macrosystems. These countries are proposed to represent different bioclimatic regions, the diversity of socio-economic conditions, and our past/current projects.

(1) European Union (Lafortezza leads): Austria, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal, Slovenia, United Kingdom. They span the range and variation of pan-European socio-political and environmental conditions which the project activities will focus on. These European case studies have been selected and defined to represent different bioclimatic regions of Europe, the diversity of socio-economic conditions, and a range of EU policies. They also contain solid reference and research data from which empirical data can be extracted and utilized. Together, the case studies provide a wide ranging and topical set of challenges and a focus for addressing key European regulatory frameworks in agricultural, urban, forest, freshwater and coastal ecosystems.

(2) African Union (Moore leads): Kenya, Malawi, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia. They are all rapidly modernizing nations in East Africa that share common economic ties, land use practices, governance structures, and an upland tropical climate. Most of the agriculture in these countries is dominated by smallholder farms centered on rain-fed maize cultivation? the exception being bananas in Uganda? and cattle/sheep/goat transhumance in more arid regions. Market liberalization in recent decades has triggered substantial economic growth in east Africa, bringing with it significant changes in agricultural and ecological processes. MSU has a long record of working in these countries and has many active working relationships already in place with University an NGO institutions. Research in these locations is broadly interdisciplinary and ranges from studies on market access to climate change impacts on agriculture to coupled natural-human systems.

(3) Soviet Union (John & Chen lead): Kazakhstan, Kyrgzstan, Tajikstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Mongolia. The collapse of the former Soviet Union provides us a great opportunity to explore the driving mechanisms of CHEMS We will focus on these countries in the drylands region where we have conducted substantial research in the past 15 years. Central Asia as defined by the former Soviet Union consisted of the Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, etc. However, the UNESCO definition includes the countries of Kazakhstan and Mongolia. The dominant cover type in this water limited region is the temperate steppe with 75% of the land area in grassland and shrubland. The post Soviet Union decade saw the collapse of the collective agricultural systems resulting in a “re-wilding of the steppe (for e.g. Kazakhstan). However, the last two decades have also seen increased degradation owing to rapid increase in livestock population along with changes in livestock composition driven by market forces.

Tasks

These groups will perform four tasks

Task 1. Construction of seamless databases for proposed macrosystems. We will construct a comprehensive database of the NS and HS for the six macrosystems at multiple spatial and temporal scales from multiple sources of journal/government publications, previous research projects, remote sensing, and other international agencies. This web-based platform will be critical for us to produce the necessary preliminary results demonstrating the feasibility of our proposal for reviewers and foundation managers. This webpage will be housed on the 120TB server that is part of Dr. Chen’s start-up package and to be completed in mid-November, 2014.

Task 2. Organizing workshops. A total of 6 workshops (i.e., one per academic term) for the PIs, potential external partners, and graduate students will be organized with support of MUS’s faculty development office. We anticipate that 1-2 seminars by our external visitors will be given on MSU campus. These seminars will be organized as ESPP seminars.

Task 3. Development of manuscripts for publication. We anticipate the following manuscript will be developed during the proposal development stages.

Chen, J et al. Dynamics and variations of the human-environment systems based on the macrosystem concept. This manuscript will be based on the social (e.g., population), economic (e.g., gross domestic product, purchasing power parity), and ecological (net ecosystem production, water use, etc.) of the countries since 1980. The lessons learned from this manuscript will help us to develop the hypotheses that will be the foundation of our external proposals (Task 4).

Task 4. Organizing external proposals. Throughout the 2-year period, we will build several sub-teams for external proposals. These may include:

  • A PIRE proposal for NSF in 2016 on the co-evolutions of CHEMS
  • An IDS proposal for NASA in 2015 or 2016
  • Other small-scale proposals (e.g., CNH, Macrosystems Biology Programs of the NSF) that may emerge during the 2-year period

Expected Outcomes

  • A comprehensive database for open access at the LEES server
  • One to two synthesis papers in influential journals
  • An interactive webpage with necessary databases to support the proposals




Team Members

Name Rank Dept/College Specialty
Jiquan Chen
(co-lead) 		Professor Geography/CSS Regional Ecology, Global Change, CHN
Emilio Moran
(co-lead)		 Prof CGCEO Socioeconomics, land use change
Bruno Basso Assoc Prof Geology/CNS Ecosystem Modeling
Kyla Dahlin Assist Prof Geography/CSS Climate change & ecosystems
John Dirks Prof EdAmin/CE Higher and adult education
Peilei Fan Assoc Prof SPDC/CSS&CANR Urban Studies, Policy
Christine Geith Assoc Provost MSU Global Online learning, Knowledge systems
Ranjeet John Res Assoc CGCEO Climate-vegetation interactions
Sasha Kravchenko Prof Plant-Soil/CANR Spatial statistics
Raffaele Lafortezza Adj Prof CGCEO Landscap change and modeling
Jack Liu Prof CSIS/CANR CHN and sustainability Sci
Lifeng Luo Assist Prof Geography/CSS Global change and modeling
Carolyn Malmstrom Assoc Prof Plant Biology/CNS Plant and landscape ecology
Nathan Moore Assist Prof Geography/CGCEO Climate Modeling
Jiaguo Qi Prof CGCEO Remote sensing and land use
Julie Winkler Prof Geography/CSS Climatic Changes
Jinhua Zhao Prof ESPP Environ policy education

Selected Collaborators

Mateus Batistella , Director, Embrapa Satellite Monitoring, Brazil
Edson Bolfe, Assoc. Dir., Research, Embrapa Satellite Monitoring, Brazil
Amarjargal Amartuvshin, Assoc Prof & Dean, Business School, University of Humanities, Mongolia
Askarbek Tulobaev, Prof., Turkey Manas University, Kyrgyzstan
Pius Yanda, Director, Institute for Resource Assessment, Tanzania
David Mkwambisi, Programmes Coordinator, LUANR, Malawi
Dan Wang, Prof., IceMe/NUIST, China

 

Contact

Center for Global Change and Earth Observations (CGCEO)
202 Manly Miles Bldg. 1405 S. Harrison Rd,
Michigan State University,
East Lansing, MI 48823

Phone: 517-844-1885 | Fax: 517-353-2932